Eham Nukaat
Shadeed Afraat e Zar, mehngai ki ek intehai aur tezi se barhne wali shakal hai, jise aam tor par mahana qeematon mein 50% se ziada izafe ke tor par bayan kiya jata hai, aur is ki bunyad economist Philip Cagan ki wasee tor par istemal ki jane wali hadd hai.
Is ki aam wajoohat mein hadd se ziada paisay jaari karna, currency par awami aitemad ka khatam hona, jang ke ikhrajat ke liye paisa jaari karna, aur maeeshat ki mismanagement shamil hain.
Mashhoor tareekhi misaalon mein Germany (1921-1923), Hungary (1945-1946), Zimbabwe (2000s), aur Venezuela shamil hain.
Shadeed Afraat e Zar se chand maheenon ke andar currency ki haqeeqi qeemat khatam ho sakti hai, jis se maashi nizaam mein bigaarh, berozgari, aur qeemat ko mehfooz rakhne ke liye mutabadil zakhair ki taraf rujhan paida ho sakta hai.
Taaruf
Shadeed Afraat e Zar, mehngai ki ek intehai aur tezi se barhne wali shakal hai jis mein qeematein beqaabu tor par barhti hain aur aksar chand maheenon ya hatta keh chand dinon ke andar currency ki qeemat ko kam kar deti hain. Aksar economies maashi sargarmiyon ke mamool ke hisse ke tor par mehngai ki kisi na kisi satah ka samna karti hain. Shadeed Afraat e Zar is se mukhtalif hai: yeh maali istehkam ke tootne ki alamat hai, jis ke gharon, karobari idaron aur hukoomaton ke liye shadeed nataij samne aate hain.
Shadeed Afraat e Zar ke waqiyat ghair mamooli noiyat ke hote hain, lekin tareekh mein is ki kai achi tarah dastavezi misaalein mojood hain jin se sabit hota hai keh maali nizaam kitni tezi se kharab ho sakta hai.
Shadeed Afraat e Zar ki Tareef
1956 mein shaya hone wale economist Philip Cagan ke paper "The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation" mein ek wasee tor par istemal hone wali hadd muqarrar ki gayi: shadeed afraat e zar us waqt shuru hota hai jab qeematon mein mahana izafe ka rate 50% se ziada ho jata hai. Isay amli tor par samajhne ke liye, agar chawal ki ek bori ki qeemat aaj $10 hai, to ek maheenay ke andar is ki qeemat $15, agle maheenay $22.50, aur ek saal ke andar $1,000 se ziada ho jaye gi. Haqeeqi waqiyat ke doran, rate aksar is hadd se bhi kahin ziada raha hai.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) un mayaari tools mein se ek hai jo waqt ke sath qeematon mein tabdeeliyon ka jaiza lene ke liye istemal kiya jata hai. Shadeed Afraat e Zar ki muddat ke doran qeematein itni tezi se badal sakti hain keh sarkari aadad o shumar dukanon mein logon ko nazar aane wali haqeeqat se door reh jate hai. Intehai satah par, qeematein chand ghanton mein do guna ho sakti hain, khareedaron ka aietmad khatam ho jata hai, aur currency bharosemand medium of exchange ke tor par apne kirdar se mehroom ho sakti hai.
Shadeed Afraat e Zar ki Kia Wajoohat hain?
Shadeed Afraat e Zar ki aam tor par koi ek wajah nahi hoti. Yeh aksar bunyadi kamzoriyan aur aese waqiyat se paida hoti hai jo ek doosre ko mazeed taqwiyat dete hain.
Paison ki hadd se ziada wus'at
Jab hukoomatein ya central banks economy ki taraf se goods aur services ki paidawar se kahin ziada tezi se paisa jaari karte hain, to yeh izafi paisa currency ki qeemat ko tezi se kam kar sakta hai. Aksar aesa us waqt hota hai jab hukoomat aese awami ikhrajat puray karne ki koshish karti hai jinhein tax aur qarz hasil karne ke zariye pura nahi kiya ja sakta. Tareekhi waqiyat mein isay sab se ziada bayan ki jane wali wajoohaat mein se ek samjha jata hai.
Currency par adam aitemad
Agar awam aur bain ul aqwami markets mein currency ke istehkam par aitemad na ho, to is ki talab mein shadeed kami aa sakti hai. Is se khud ko mazeed taqat dene wala ek silsila shuru ho sakta hai: jese jese currency ki qeemat kam hoti hai, log ise kharch karne ya tabdeel karne ke liye jaldi karte hain, jis se is ki qeemat mein mazeed tezi se kami aana shuru ho jati hai.
Jang ke ikhrajat aur hukoomati qarza
Jang ke dour mein economies aksar fauji karwaiyon ke ikhrajat puray karne ke liye paisa jaari karti hain, khas tor par jab qarz lene ya tax jama karne se ikhrajat puray na ho pa rahay hon. Jang ke baad muawzay ki adaigi ki zimmedariyan is dabao mein mazeed izafa kar sakti hain, jo keh World War I ke baad Germany ke halaat mein wazeh tor par nazar aati hai.
Supply shocks aur maashi bad-intizami
Bunyadi zarurat ki cheezein, khas tor par khanay peenay ki cheezon aur fuel ki supply mein shadeed khalal qeematon ke tezi se barhne ka sabab bann sakta hai. Jab in halaat ke sath price controls, bad-unwani, ya qaumi wasail ke ghair moassar istemal jaisi policy ki nakaamiyan mil jati hain, to yeh halaat ek doosre ko mazeed taqwiyat de sakte hain.
Shadeed Afraat e Zar ke Numaiyan Waqiyat
Germany (1921-1923)
Sab se ziada zer-e-mutala waqiyat mein se ek World War I ke baad Weimar Republic mein pesh aaya. Germany ne jang ke ikhrajat ziada tar qarz ke zariye puray kiye thay aur usay umeed thi keh Allied reparations (Allied mumalik ke tawan e jang) ke zariye yeh lagat wapis hasil kar le ga. Is ke bajaye, usay eham industrial ilaqon se mehroom hone ke sath sath bhari muawzay adaa karne parre. Hukoomat ne apni zimmedariyan poori karne ke liye currency ki bohat barri miqdar jaari ki. Apni intehai satah par, reports ke mutabiq mehngai ki sharah rozana 20% se ziada ho gayi thi, aur mazdooron ko din mein kai martaba tankhwah di jati thi taa keh woh qeematon ke dubara barhne se pehle apni ujrat kharch kar sakein.
Hungary (1945-1946)
Hungary ke paas dastavezi tor par sab se bad tareen shadeed afraat e zar ka record hai. World War II ke baad, Hungarian pengo ki qadar taqreeban mukammal tor par khatam ho gayi, aur July 1946 mein apni intehai satah par qeematein taqreeban har 15 ghante mein do guna ho rahi thein. August 1946 mein ek nayee currency, forint, mutarif karwane ke baad yeh bohran khatam hua, jis ki bunyad sone aur bain-ul-aqwami zakhair ko banaya gaya.
Zimbabwe (2000s)
Zimbabwe ka bohran aesi zameeni islahat ki policies se barhta gaya jin ki wajah se zarai paidawar mutasir hui, hukoomati qarz mein izafa hua, aur hukoomati zimmedariyan puri karne ke liye money supply barhane ka faisla kiya gaya. July 2008 tak saalana mehngai taqreeban 231 million feesad tak pohanch gayi thi. 2009 mein Zimbabwe dollar ko tark kar ke us ki jagah bain-ul-aqwami currencies istemal ki jane lagein. Baad mein muqami currency dubara mutarif karwane ki koshishon ko bhi badastoor adam istehkam ka samna raha hai.
Mojooda misaal: Venezuela
Venezuela aaj ke dor ki ek wazeh misaal hai. 2016 se 2019 tak ke shadeed bohran ke baad qeematon mein izafa kuch arsay ke liye sust rawi ka shikar hua, lekin 2026 mein mulk mein mehngai ki sharah dubara barh kar tez hoti gayi, halan keh technically yeh Cagan ki 50% mahana mehngai ki hadd par pura nahi utarta. Sarkari data ke mutabiq June 2026 mein mahana mehngai ki sharah taqreeban 13.8% aur saalana mehngai qareeban 544% thi, aur yeh soorat e haal ek zalzale ke baais supply chains mutasir hone se mazeed kharab ho gayi. Yeh is baat ko zahir karta hai keh jab bunyadi wajoohat ka hal na kiya jaye to bahali kitni mushkil ho sakti hai.
Cryptocurrencies ka istemal
Shadeed Afraat e Zar ke dour ne is baat ki taraf tawajju dilai hai keh jab fiat currencies par aitemad khatam ho jaye to cryptocurrencies, qeemat mehfooz rakhne ka ek mumkin zariya ho sakti hain. Venezuela aur Zimbabwe jaise mumalik mein currency ke bad tareen adam istehkam ke doran, peer-to-peer cryptocurrency ki sargarmiyan barhne ka rujhan raha, kiun keh log girte huwe mulki maali nizam ke ilawa qeemat mehfooz rakhne ke tareeqay talash kar rahe thay. Yeh ek wasee tar rujhan ki akasi karta hai: jab hukoomati currency par aitemad kamzor ho jata hai, to log mutabadil zaraye ki taraf rukh kar sakte hain, chahe woh bain-ul-aqwami currencies hon, commodities se backed assets hon, ya decentralized digital assets.
Is se ilawa, kuch hukoomaton ne monetary control aur financial inclusion ke zariye ke tor par rayasat ki janib se jaari karda digital currencies ka jaiza liya hai. Yeh central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) decentralized cryptocurrencies se bunyadi tor par mukhtalif hoti hain. Yeh ab bhi monetary policy ke faislon se mashroot hoti hain aur in ki supply ki koi tay shuda hadd nahi hoti, is liye in mein Bitcoin jaisi assets ki nayabi ki khasoosiyat fitri tor par mojood nahi hotin.
Aksar Pooche Jane wale Sawalaat
Shadeed Afraat e Zar aam mehngai se kis tarah mukhtalif hoti hai?
Mamool ki mehngai, qeematon ki amoomi satah mein aahista aahista aur mustaqil izafay ko kehte hain, jis ki paimaish aam tor par saalana bunyad par ki jati hai aur maashi sargarmiyon ko jaari rakhne ke liye central banks aksar isay 2% ke qareeb rakhne ka hadaf muqarrar karte hain. Shadeed Afraat e Zar mein Cagan ki hadd ke mutabiq mahana izafa 50% se ziada hota hai. Yeh chand maheenon ke andar currency ko amli tor par na qabil e istemal bana sakti hai aur is ke hal ke liye aam tor par eham iqdamat zaroori hote hain, jaisa keh currency ko tabdeel karna ya bain ul aqwami imdaad hasil karna.
Shadeed Afraat e Zar ke doran qarz ka kia hota hai?
Shadeed Afraat e Zar ke dour mein muqarrara raqam ke qarz ki haqeeqi qeemat aam tor par kam ho jati hai, kiun keh qarz lene wale isay aesi currency mein wapis karte hain jis ki qeemat qarz lete waqt ke muqable mein bohat kam hoti hai. Agarcheh is se kuch qarzon ka bojh kam ho sakta hai, lekin nuqsan aam tor par barre paimanay par kahin ziada hota hai. Is mein karobari idaron ka band hona, berozgari, credit system ka khatam ho jana, aur bachaton mein kami shamil ho sakti hai.
Kia United States ko kabhi shadeed afraat e zar ka samna hua hai?
United States ne Cagan ki 50% mahana hadd ke mutabiq kabhi Shadeed Afraat e Zar ka samna nahi kiya. Jadeed dour mein saalana sab se ziada sharah March 1980 mein taqreeban 14.8% thi, jis ki wajah oil ki qeematon mein hone wala achanak izafa aur maashi sargarmiyon ko barhane wali policy thi. 2020s mein dekhi jane wali ziada mehngai bhi shadeed afraat e zar ki satah se bohat neeche rahi aur isay mamool ki monetary policy ke zariye qaboo kar liya gaya.
Ikhtitami Khayalat
Shadeed Afraat e Zar un sab se ziada khalal daalne wale maashi waqiyat mein se hai jin ka kisi mulk ko samna ho sakta hai. Is ke baais chand maheenon ke andar bachaton ki haqeeqi qaddar kam ho sakti hai, berozgari paida ho sakti hai, aur currency par aitemaad khatam ho sakta hai. Is ke waqiyat aam tor par pecheeda aur kai wajoohat par mabni hote hain, lekin hadd se ziada paisa jaari karna aur currency par aitemad ka khatam hona tareekhi aur jadeed dono halaat mein aam nazar aane walay asbaab hain.